As far as I know everybody who follows the VTS Iron Condor Strategy is now in the current trade. It’s usually very clean and easy, but there are times when the markets don’t fully cooperate as this week has shown. The markets moving higher on Monday after the signal was sent meant we had to try again on Tuesday with a slightly altered trade. No problem though, we’re in it now so it’s just a waiting game. Hopefully just sit back and collect our daily Theta.
I’m going to do a video talking about the option greeks soon, but if anybody is interested I have an article explaining them. It was published over 5 years ago though so you can let me know if you think my writing style has changed at all since then.
So the big story today (but honestly in my opinion the big NON story) was the inflation number. Every month the CPI readings are published and there has been a lot made of the recent uptick in inflation. Media outlets are actually blaming last weeks market sell off on this uptick in inflation saying it was the catalyst for the -10% drop in the S&P 500.
While it is true that if inflation runs too hot, that may change the current trajectory of interest rate hikes which may put pressure on the stock market, but I think we’re getting a little ahead of ourselves to think we’re there yet.
Year over year inflation since 1948:
Year over year inflation since 2010:
I think it’s a stretch to blame the recent stock market pullback on that tiny uptick in wage growth from the recent jobs report. Honestly sometimes markets don’t need a catalyst to see a pullback. Maybe it was just time. Clearly the S&P 500 is overvalued and prices are stretched to the upside. Couple that with the fact that it’s been ages since even a 3% correction and it’s no wonder that the very first excuse at all led to something. We could just as easily blame a dozen other things as well. I’ll let everybody know when it is a full on “catalyst” but right now there are many reasons why these markets could be in the upper range.
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