It’s still early (and I’m not much of a technical analysis guy, more on that in an upcoming video) but the S&P 500 has potentially broken out of this ugly range we’ve seen since February.
The volatility markets have also started to see a recovery. Again it’s very early and VIX futures contango just yesterday broke above the long-term mean so it’s not time to break out the champaign just yet, but it’s nice to see M2:M1 futures above 5%. It’s been a while.
Our patience and willingness to move to safety positions to avoid bad signals has paid off nicely this year. While the S&P 500 has quite a distance to go to get back to it’s all time high, our Total Portfolio Solution has already been there for a few months. This is the second longest bull market in history so it’s not always obvious why we focus on risk management. However periods like the last few months certainly make it more clear. And of course since the average recession cycle in the United States is 6-7 years, every once in a while it becomes really obvious why risk management is our top priority. I hope the lessons of the dot.com crash and financial crisis have not been forgotten. Nobody knows when or why it will happen until it does, but at some point the global economy will revisit that crisis feeling. Is anybody out there under the impression that what caused them in the first place has been fixed?
On a personal note, if you remember on January 5th, 2018 I introduced my cats to everyone in a personal blog. Unfortunately my best friend of nearly 13 years, my little boy Didi has passed away.
He’s always had heart issues but he’s a fighter and always found a way to push forward. When he was barely 1 years old he had a heart blockage and stopped breathing, couldn’t move his limbs, and we were sure that was the end. We stayed up with him all night, said our goodbyes and prepared for the worst. But to our joy he pulled through. This same thing has happened a few more times since but he always fought hard to stay with the family. This past week though he just wasn’t able to.
Officially what he had was a Thromboembolism which is essentially a blot clot that stops circulation but it’s all related to his heart issues. His heart is much too large for his body and it’s given him trouble over the years. So he has a huge heart both literally and figuratively. It really hurts not having him with us any more but he’s been an amazing friend and he’ll be missed by everyone who was lucky enough to have known him. His little sister is still with us, but she’ll need a lot of extra love, she absolutely adored him. Followed him around everywhere he went.
For all of you who have pets, give them some extra love today because you really never know how long we have with them. It’s one of life’s great injustices that we live longer than our furry loved ones.
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